A warning from the toolmaker
ASML's chief executive, Christophe Fouquet, said on October 5 that the global AI boom is outpacing the chip industry's ability to build production capacity. He warned that supply constraints could last for years.
ASML is the only company that makes extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, the tools used to print the most advanced chips. Its order book is watched closely as a guide to how fast chipmakers plan to expand.
Equipment spending hits a record
Industry group SEMI expects global semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales to reach $165.9 billion in 2026, up 23.2% from a year earlier. That would be a record. SEMI expects the market to climb to $229.5 billion by 2028.
Front-end equipment, used to make wafers, is projected to reach $143.9 billion in 2026. Test equipment is forecast to grow 31%, one of the fastest rates in the industry.
AI demand is the main driver. Deloitte estimates that generative AI chips will approach $500 billion in revenue in 2026, roughly half of all global chip sales. AMD chief executive Lisa Su has said the market for data-center AI accelerators could reach $1 trillion by 2030.
Why capacity is hard to add
Building a new chip fab takes years and costs billions of dollars. Clean rooms, water systems and power supplies must be built before the first tool is installed. Lithography machines themselves have long lead times.
That mismatch is why the warning matters for buyers of AI servers, memory and networking gear. If tool supply and fab space cannot keep up, lead times for finished chips stay long and prices stay high.
Chipmakers are responding with new plants in the United States, Japan, South Korea and Europe. Even so, analysts say the current wave of investment may not be enough to meet demand before 2028.
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