Up on the Pacific, down into Europe
Drewry's World Container Index, the benchmark many procurement teams reference, rose 1% in the week to 24 September to $4,339 per 40ft container. The gain came from the Pacific. Spot rates from Shanghai to New York climbed 10% to $8,706 per 40ft, and Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 6% to $6,244. The Asia to Europe lanes moved the other way: Shanghai to Genoa fell 8% to $5,080, and Shanghai to Rotterdam slipped 5% to $4,425. Some carriers have announced all-in rates of $6,700 to $7,100 per 40ft on Pacific services.
Carriers are managing the space
Drewry counted ten cancelled sailings in each of the past two weeks, with another seven planned for the coming week. Cancelled sailings remove capacity from the market and support prices without any change in demand, which is why freight analysts read the numbers as supply management rather than a cargo boom. North American container flows have been broadly steady, though volumes and dwell times differ by gateway, according to a quarterly freight outlook from UPS.
Most cargo does not move at spot prices at all. In a briefing this month, the Port of Los Angeles noted that more than 90% of import trade runs under contracted volume between carriers and importers, so the weekly index mainly describes the tail of the market. Where contracts and routing allow, trans-Pacific economics have tilted toward West Coast gateways because cargo moves quickly from the dock to rail.
What it means for shippers
Two markets are running at once. Europe-bound cargo is getting cheaper, while Pacific cargo is getting dearer and the ships carrying it are being held back. For retailers finishing their peak-season imports, the risk in the next few weeks is less about the price on the contract than about whether there is a slot to put it in.
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