A nine-month window
Extreme heat caused by this year's "super El Nino" could result in as many as 451,000 excess deaths across the globe from June 2026 to February 2027, researchers with the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab estimated, Reuters reported.
The projection covers the full warm phase of the event, which began earlier this year and is expected to fade in early 2027. Excess deaths count people who died during the period beyond the number expected under normal conditions.
Heat, fire and drought
The estimate arrives as several regions deal with extreme weather at the same time. Indonesia is fighting its worst wildfires in more than a decade, with thick smoke over Borneo. Drought and low rainfall in Europe have shrunk rivers, exposed sunken wartime wrecks and pushed up prices for goods that move by water.
The European climate service Copernicus found that August was the hottest month on record. Scientists studying the Pacific say this event did not create every heatwave and fire season on its own, but that the strongest phase is still ahead.
"This is probably going to be the superlative El Nino event of our lives so far," one climate scientist said in Scientific American.
Preparing for the months ahead
Researchers and emergency planners say the same measures keep appearing in studies of heat deaths: early warning systems, public cooling centres, changes to working hours for outdoor labour, and checks on older and isolated residents.
Money is part of the argument. Britain said it would provide 331 million pounds to help address climate change and biodiversity loss, warning that environmental shocks are increasingly treated as a national security concern. Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan, whose country hosts the COP31 climate summit, said it is unrealistic to expect equal progress on climate policy while gaps in access to finance and technology persist.