The point of return
A temporary breach of the 1.5C warming limit is now imminent and unavoidable after decades of insufficient action, the UN Environment Programme said in its annual Emissions Gap Report. This year's edition is titled The point of return and shifts the focus from avoiding overshoot to limiting its size and duration.
Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, roughly level with 2024. UNEP said the figures are provisional and that it cannot yet conclude which way emissions are heading.
Pledges fall short
Even the lowest-overshoot pathway would see warming peak at about 1.7C to 1.8C around mid-century before declining, and return to or below 1.5C by 2100 with about a 50% chance of success. That path requires cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035 against 2025 levels.
Current national pledges, if fully delivered, would cut emissions by only 5% to 8% by 2030 and 11% to 15% by 2035. The report said 95% of countries missed the UN deadline to submit their 2035 plans. The United States, the only one of the six largest emitters to post a clear rise, added 133 million tonnes in 2025 as electricity demand grew and coal use rebounded.
What has to change
To keep the overshoot small, the report estimates coal-fired energy must fall 15% by 2030 and 90% by 2050, while oil use falls 65% and gas 75% by 2050. Solar power and electric vehicles are already bending the power and transport curves, but not fast enough to cut total emissions.
Data centres are projected to double their electricity demand by 2030, though they account for less than 1% of emissions today. Efforts to stop deforestation by the end of the decade remain far off track and would need to accelerate more than tenfold.
COP31 opens in Antalya on 9 November, with Australia leading negotiations. UNEP's message is that the return path is still open, but every five years of delay adds about 0.1C to peak warming.