Shipping stays in the crossfire
Iran reported on Thursday that three more tankers had been damaged in the Strait of Hormuz, a day after the Revolutionary Guard said two oil tankers and a tugboat caught fire in the waterway. Iranian authorities have also said commercial ships struck sea mines. The reports make clear that shipping will stay in danger as long as the Gulf war is unresolved.
The strait carries a large share of the world's seaborne oil, and traffic through it has fallen to its lowest level since May. Shipowners, insurers and charterers are routing around the risk or pricing it into freight rates.
Mediation is still on the table
Qatar said this week that the United States and Iran were both committed to mediation and were reviewing proposals meant to bridge their differences. Iran has set conditions for reopening the strait, and Tehran called the American reply to those conditions unconvincing.
The politics around the war changed on Tuesday. US voters gave Democrats control of the House and the Senate, and Democratic leaders said the president should end the war before the new Congress takes its seats. Vice President JD Vance said the war was the reason Republicans lost, and Trump acknowledged that he could not transfer his personal support to other candidates.
The US military has carried out limited strikes on Iranian targets near the strait, including Qeshm Island, after the Guard fired at an American aircraft. More US carriers are now in the region than at any point this year.
Oil traders bet on peace, briefly
Crude fell about 8% on Wednesday as traders bet that the election result would push Washington toward a deal. West Texas Intermediate steadied near $88 a barrel on Thursday morning before edging up again after the new tanker reports. Diesel and freight costs remain well above their levels before the war.
The next test is whether mediation produces anything concrete. Qatar has not said when the two sides might meet, and Iran has given no sign that it will stop pressing ships in the meantime.