The El Niño that began in June is the strongest ever measured for its time of year, and forecasters expect it to peak in November or December before fading in early 2027. The World Meteorological Organization puts the chance of it lasting through February at close to 100%. Ocean temperatures hit a record 21.11C between 60 degrees north and south in August. Scientists expect 2026 to be the hottest year on record, with heat, floods and wildfire risk spread across the Pacific basin.
The UN Environment Programme says a temporary breach of the 1.5C warming limit is now imminent and unavoidable after decades of insufficient action, and that the task is to limit the size and duration of the overshoot. Global emissions reached 58.4 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2025, roughly level with 2024. Even the lowest-overshoot pathway peaks at 1.7C to 1.8C mid-century and needs cuts of 18% by 2030 and 45% by 2035, while current pledges deliver only 5% to 8% by 2030. COP31 opens in Antalya on 9 November.
The World Meteorological Organization says its new seasonal outlook projects tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures up to 3.8°C above average between November 2026 and January 2027, far past the 0.5°C threshold that defines El Niño. The agency said the event could be unprecedented in strength and would go beyond the four decades of records used to describe past events, with a peak around December and effects lasting longer. The outlook points to heavier rain in East Africa, the northwest United States and parts of South America and Asia, and drought risk elsewhere. WMO and UN humanitarian officials called for money and supplies to be moved before the damage. COP31 opens in Antalya on November 9.
Researchers estimate that 50,391 people died from heat in 854 European urban areas during the summer of 2026, the highest toll since 2000 in the areas studied. About two-thirds of the deaths are attributed to human-induced climate change. The figure is almost double the roughly 29,000 estimated for summer 2022 and the 28,000 for 2003. The analysis, led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Imperial College London, covered cities in 27 EU countries plus the UK, Norway and Switzerland. One heat wave from 17 June to 1 July, when temperatures ran 5.3C above normal, accounted for about a third of the deaths.
The World Meteorological Organization forecasts a seasonal average sea surface temperature anomaly of about +3.8C in the central and eastern tropical Pacific for November to January, the highest since records began and well above the +2.6C peak of 2015-16. It puts the likelihood of El Nino persisting through February 2027 at near 100%. The forecast follows UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2026, which says holding warming to 1.5C without overshoot is no longer possible and calls for an 18% cut in emissions by 2030 against a 2025 baseline.
The UN biodiversity summit in Yerevan closed on 30 October with a deal that keeps the Kunming-Montreal framework moving and sets up the first formal global review of progress toward its 2030 targets. Finance day produced $60 million in pledges to the Global Biodiversity Framework Fund, and donors added about $500 million to the Global Environment Facility and the GBFF. Total commitments to the facility's ninth replenishment now sit near $4.4 billion. Campaigners say that is a fraction of an estimated $700 billion annual shortfall, most of it harmful subsidies rather than missing grants.
A fresh assessment of national climate plans finds they now promise only half the emission cuts the UN expected a year ago. The pledges put 2035 emissions just 6 percent below 2019 levels, against 12 percent projected last year, and leave the world on track for 2.1C to 3.2C of warming. The United States exit from the Paris Agreement and weaker pledges from several large emitters are behind the gap. The figures land three weeks before COP31 opens in Antalya, Turkey, where trade and adaptation finance are already contested.
A UN report released in Yerevan on 29 October finds that 252 million hectares of ecosystems across 149 countries are being restored, an area the size of Argentina or Algeria, creating more than one million green jobs. It is the largest documented restoration effort to date, but the pace must roughly triple to reach the one billion hectares countries have promised by 2030. Most of the work, 232 million hectares, is on land, against 11 million in inland waters and 5.7 million in marine and coastal areas. The report, Nature's comeback, was produced by UNEP, FAO and the Convention on Biological Diversity secretariat.
President Donald Trump said at a Texas rally that his administration is terminating a Biden-era rule aimed at cutting methane emissions from oil and gas drilling. He said the change would save $45 billion and unlock 210 million barrels of oil, about ten days of US consumption. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin had previewed the move, including elimination of the Super Emitter Program that forces operators to repair large leaks found by satellites, and looser standards for small wells. Methane accounts for roughly a third of greenhouse gas emissions. It is the latest step in a wider rollback of climate policy.
An oil spill from a tanker damaged near the Strait of Hormuz is spreading along the northern coast of the United Arab Emirates, forcing beach closures in Umm Al Quwain and Sharjah. Satellite images from the EU's Copernicus network dated October 24 show the slick widening toward shore. The ship matches the location and size of Gem No.2, which was hit between October 9 and 10 during a surge of vessel strikes. The Ministry of Climate Change and Environment says containment work is under way. Researchers at Sharjah Marine Science Research Centre say an impact on marine life is inevitable but too early to measure.